Bitcoin Slips Under $62,000 as US-Iran Ceasefire Breaks Down

Bitcoin remained below $62,000 after Wednesday’s Wall Street open as markets reacted to renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. According to TradingView data, BTC fell roughly 2.5% on the day, trading near $61,500 after US President Donald Trump suggested that the ceasefire with Iran had collapsed. “To me, I think it’s over,” Trump said during a press conference at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.

Reports also indicated that both the US and Iran were considering a renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. The news pushed US WTI crude oil above $75 per barrel, its highest level since June 22.

Fed rate expectations shift as oil rises

The renewed geopolitical uncertainty quickly affected expectations around US monetary policy. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed rising expectations for a possible interest-rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, while July is still expected to leave rates unchanged. On prediction platform Kalshi, users placed the probability of a 2026 rate hike at 55%.

Higher oil prices could add pressure to inflation expectations, which may complicate the Federal Reserve’s path on interest rates and weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Traders watch $61,000 support level

Crypto trader and analyst Michaël Van de Poppe said Bitcoin may retest the $61,000 level before markets stabilize. “This to happen, and then 1-2 days later; we're in talks again. And the markets reverse,” he wrote on X. Earlier, Van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s broader price structure did not yet show major weakness.

“Price remains hovering above $60,000, despite the fact that the Middle East has reactivated the War again. Other than that, as long as it remains a relatively shallow correction, I don't think we'll start to see lower levels in the markets,” he wrote. “The crucial level for me is the $61,000 area.”

Other traders are watching for a possible move toward new local lows. “Tensions with Iran flaring up again just as $BTC tried to reclaim the previous range lows. Starting to look like we're getting those cheaper accumulation opportunities we were hoping for,” trader Jelle told followers on X.

Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-slides-as-iran-ceasefire-collapse-brings-back-hormuz-blockade-threat

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedhike/next-fed-rate-hike/fedhike

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2074854586012070291

https://x.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/2074776336082571691

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/