Bitcoin Profit and Loss Ratio Falls to 43-month Low
BITmarkets Team
Jul 07, 2026
The realized P&L ratio measures how much of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently in profit or loss relative to the total supply. The indicator last reached similar levels in December 2022, shortly after the collapse of FTX pushed Bitcoin below $16,000. “Historically the indicator has marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision,” CryptoQuant said on Thursday.
The analytics firm also noted that the ratio fell below -0.35 in both 2015 and 2019, with each occurrence followed by a significant Bitcoin price recovery.
Analysts debate whether Bitcoin has bottomed
The latest onchain data has fueled optimism that Bitcoin may be approaching the end of its current bear market, although analysts remain divided on whether further downside is still possible. Bitcoin has already recovered more than 7% since falling to nearly a two-year low of $58,190 on June 25.
Some market observers linked that decline to concerns surrounding Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Its perpetual preferred stock, Stretch (STRC), dropped from its $100 reference value to below $75, prompting worries over the sustainability of its dividend model.
On Thursday, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argued that the market had already flushed out excessive leverage following the STRC episode. “As the market continues to sort things out, I’m convinced the bottom is closer than ever — and that we will enter a new bull market in the fall.”
Long-term investors encouraged to stay focused
Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston pointed out that Bitcoin is currently trading just 16% above its realized price, which represents the network’s average onchain acquisition cost.Historically, periods when Bitcoin has trad ed near this level have produced average returns of around 41% over six months and 81% over twelve months, according to Livingston.
While he acknowledged that buying during periods of market weakness can be psychologically difficult, he argued that this is often when Bitcoin offers the greatest long-term value. “Waiting for ‘the bottom’ is a wonderful plan with one flaw. The bottom never announces itself,” Livingston said, encouraging investors to focus on long-term accumulation rather than trying to perfectly time the market.
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