Monthly Prediction Markets Volume Reaches $25.7 Billion

Prediction markets are emerging as one of the most active onchain use cases, with retail participants driving the majority of activity even as engagement across the broader digital asset market remains relatively muted.

A recent report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket found that monthly trading volume reached $25.7 billion in March, with over 80% of users classified as retail traders—defined as those transacting less than $10,000.

These figures align closely with data from Dune Analytics, which recorded $23.7 billion in trading volume for the same month, a sharp increase from $1.9 billion a year earlier.

Shift toward continuous engagement

The report highlights a notable change in user behavior. Rather than focusing solely on major, one-off events, participants are increasingly returning to the platforms more frequently and interacting across a wider range of categories.

Average active days per user rose significantly, increasing from 2.5 to 9.9 during the first quarter, suggesting more consistent engagement.

Among the various categories, sports led activity with $10.1 billion in trading volume, supported by a steady flow of global events. Political markets also contributed substantially, generating $5 billion over the same period. These trends indicate that prediction markets may be evolving beyond occasional speculation into a more continuous way of tracking real-world developments, with crypto wallets playing a growing role as access points.

Growth outlook and industry momentum

Platforms such as Polymarket, which operates on the Polygon network, allow users to place onchain bets on real-world outcomes without intermediaries, while alternatives like Kalshi run centralized marketplaces. Industry projections cited in the report suggest that prediction market volumes could reach $240 billion annually this year, with longer-term forecasts pointing toward trillion-dollar levels.

The sector has gained momentum since the 2024 US presidential election, benefiting early participants such as Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which are reportedly raising significant funding at valuations exceeding $20 billion.

For Polymarket, evolving regulatory conditions—particularly increasing acceptance from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission—have enabled further steps to strengthen market integrity and transparency. The platform has recently updated its governance framework to address risks related to insider trading and market manipulation.

Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/prediction-markets-25-7b-monthly-volume-report-retail-activity

https://dune.com/