Prediction Markets Overtake Onchain Gambling for First Time
BITmarkets Team
Jun 11, 2026
The sector recorded $36.6 billion in volume during the quarter, significantly ahead of the $14 billion processed by onchain gambling applications. TRM Labs noted that both industries experienced rapid growth in recent years. During 2025, onchain gambling reached $51 billion in annual volume, while prediction markets climbed slightly higher to $54 billion, putting both sectors on a similar footing heading into 2026.
Despite prediction markets taking the lead, gambling activity remained close to historic highs. Quarterly gambling volume peaked at $15 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 before easing only slightly to $14 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Notably, neither sector experienced a major decline during the broader cryptocurrency market correction, with trading activity remaining elevated throughout the downturn.
Market downturn fails to slow activity
According to TRM Labs, the resilience of onchain gambling activity during weaker market conditions reflects the engagement of a dedicated user base rather than broader speculative interest. A company spokesperson told Cointelegraph that gambling volumes remained strong because of the “sticky and expanding activity of a loyal user base.”
“This does not mean anything about concentration risk in itself, since there is quite a large gambling user base,” the spokesperson said. “It shows how a consistent user activity can insulate an industry from a market pullback and in fact drive growth.” The findings suggest that certain blockchain-based entertainment sectors may be less dependent on market sentiment than traditional cryptocurrency trading activity.
Different risk profiles for gambling and prediction markets
While both industries increasingly rely on stablecoin infrastructure, TRM Labs highlighted that prediction markets and gambling platforms face different regulatory and compliance challenges. Prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi operate as peer-to-peer marketplaces where users trade outcomes of future events. In contrast, gambling platforms including Stake, WINk and Rollbit function more like traditional casinos, with the operator setting odds and maintaining a built-in house advantage.
TRM Labs said prediction markets face greater concerns related to insider information and market manipulation, while gambling platforms are generally more exposed to money laundering risks. “Gambling services and prediction markets carry distinct inherent financial crime risks, and firms should calibrate controls accordingly,” a TRM Labs spokesperson told Cointelegraph.
Casual users fuel growth alongside high rollers
The report found that more than 2 million personal wallets interacted with onchain gambling platforms between January 2022 and March 2026. TRM categorized users into five behavioral groups, ranging from occasional participants to large-scale bettors. "Dabblers" conducted only a handful of transactions before becoming inactive, while "Casual Bettors" averaged 18 transactions across eight active days. Other categories included "Event Chasers," "Daily Grinders" and "High Rollers."
Although activity remains heavily concentrated among large bettors, growth has not been limited to this group. High Rollers represented only 6.3% of personal gambling wallets but accounted for 91.8% of total personal-wallet gambling volume since 2022.
At the same time, broader user participation continues to expand. Monthly volume generated by Casual Bettors increased from $17 million in January 2022 to $188 million by March 2026, while Daily Grinders recorded a twelvefold increase in activity over the same period.
Sources:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/onchain-gambling-market-pullback-trm-labs
