Standard Chartered analysts reiterated their projection that the stablecoin sector could expand to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, even after revising near-term expectations for US Treasury bill demand.

According to a report by analyst Geoffrey Kendrick and US rates strategist John Davies, major dollar-pegged stablecoins such as Tether’s USDt and Circle’s USDC are still expected to generate substantial demand for Treasury bills, potentially reaching $2.2 trillion by 2028.

Although the US-dollar stablecoin market capitalization has remained near $300 billion in recent months amid broader cryptocurrency market weakness, the analysts maintain a constructive long-term stance following the passage of the GENIUS Act in 2025. The report noted, “We see these issues as cyclical rather than structural, and we continue to expect stablecoin market cap to reach $2 trillion by end-2028.”

Treasury bill demand and supply dynamics

Despite trimming projections, Standard Chartered still anticipates stablecoins could contribute between $800 billion and $1 trillion in additional Treasury bill demand for reserve backing by late 2028, down from the earlier $1.6 trillion estimate made in April 2025. The analysts indicated that such demand could still influence US government debt issuance.

They referenced comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in early February, in which he suggested the GENIUS Act could be “an important feature of financing the US government.” The Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement also highlighted “growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector.” According to the report, stablecoin-related demand combined with the Federal Reserve’s reserve management purchases and its shift from mortgage-backed securities into T-bills “could arguably cause T-bills to become overly scarce.”

Broader crypto market projections

Alongside the stablecoin outlook, the bank previously projected Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2028. However, amid continued uncertainty across digital asset markets, analysts have recently lowered their 2026 Bitcoin forecast from $150,000 to $100,000, while noting the possibility of a temporary decline toward $50,000 before a potential recovery phase.

Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/stablecoin-sector-may-reach-2-trillion-standard-chartered-says

https://cointelegraph.com/news/standard-chartered-2t-stablecoin-forecast-2028-t-bill-demand-trim

https://x.com/subjectiveviews/status/2019073746057785494

https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/usd-stablecoin