Onchain perpetual futures tied to real-world commodities such as gold and oil have seen a sharp increase in trading activity, suggesting that investors may be shifting capital away from altcoins toward commodity-based digital assets.

The trend was highlighted in a report released Thursday by digital asset bank Sygnum. According to the report, oil and precious metals perpetual futures now account for more than 67% of HIP-3 contracts on the Hyperliquid decentralized exchange during the first quarter of 2026. These contracts, referred to as “Builder-Deployed Perpetuals,” have significantly reshaped trading activity on the platform.

Previously, index-based products dominated HIP-3 trading, representing around 90% of volume, but their share has dropped to approximately 17%, reflecting a notable change in market preferences.

Weekend trading volumes for these contracts have also increased sharply, rising roughly ninefold since January 2026. Sygnum attributed this surge to a growing number of crypto-native traders reallocating funds into traditional asset exposure as altcoin performance continues to lag.

Capital rotation driven by market conditions

Lucas Schweiger, Sygnum’s digital asset ecosystem research lead, said the shift is consistent with broader growth in tokenized real-world assets, which have seen their market capitalization rise by about 250% year over year. He noted that roughly $23 billion worth of tokenized real-world assets are currently being traded on permissionless blockchain networks. Schweiger added that many traders are increasingly treating altcoins as “leveraged BTC proxies,” which is influencing how capital flows within the crypto ecosystem.

“That creates an environment where crypto-native capital naturally gravitates toward traditional asset perps that can be traded through the same wallet, using the same margin, just a different trade.”

Geopolitical developments have also contributed to the trend. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to energy infrastructure have pushed oil prices higher, while many altcoins remain significantly below their previous peaks, with declines of 80% to 90% from all-time highs.

Rising macro risks and recession concerns

The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has had a direct impact on global energy markets, with oil prices reaching levels of around $120 per barrel at their peak. Since then, prices have remained volatile, reacting to political developments and statements from both US and Iranian officials.

Market analyst Nic Puckrin warned that if oil prices stay above $100 per barrel throughout 2026, inflation could rise further, potentially affecting monetary policy. He noted that while markets are currently pricing in a possible de-escalation of the conflict, there is a risk that expectations may prove overly optimistic.

If tensions persist and inflation remains elevated, it could undermine hopes for interest rate cuts in 2026.

Economic uncertainty is also increasing. Since the conflict escalated on February 28, the probability of a US recession has risen to 36% on the Polymarket platform. Meanwhile, ratings agency Moody’s estimates that the likelihood of a US recession in 2026 is now close to 50%.

Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/onchain-real-world-perps-surge-while-crypto-market-rout-drags-on-standard-chartered

https://www.sygnum.com/research/digital-nuggets/are-traditional-assets-finding-a-home-on-decentralised-rails/

https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-by-end-of-2026