Bitcoin buying activity has picked up at the start of 2026, with institutional investors now absorbing more BTC each day than miners are adding to circulation. Recent tracking data shows institutions acting as net buyers for eight consecutive days, marking a clear shift after a period of weaker demand around the turn of the year.

Figures from Capriole Investments indicate that institutional purchases are currently exceeding newly mined supply by roughly 76%. The firm’s Net Institutional Buying metric, which aggregates activity from corporate treasuries and US spot Bitcoin ETFs, has remained positive throughout this stretch.

On the latest reading, excess demand reached 76%, confirming that institutional accumulation is once again outpacing supply growth.

“Institutions are once again net buyers of Bitcoin,” Capriole founder Charles Edwards wrote on X, pointing to historical patterns that have followed similar flips in demand dynamics.

Past supply-demand flips show strong upside

According to Edwards, periods when institutional buying turns positive relative to mined supply have historically coincided with notable BTC price appreciation. Since 2020, the average price increase following such a shift has been about 109%, while the most recent prior occurrence led to gains of roughly 41%.

The return of net institutional buying comes after nearly three months of price weakness, during which Bitcoin retraced close to 40% from its October peak near $126,200. With demand recovering, analysts are increasingly watching whether historical trends could repeat.

History points to potential relief bounce

Network economist Timothy Peterson added that previous market behavior supports the case for a near-term rebound, noting that extended monthly drawdowns have been relatively rare.

“History favors a return above $100,000 for Bitcoin this month. Bitcoin has had 3 consecutive months of declines. That has only happened 9 times since 2015,” Peterson wrote on X. “What happens next? 1 month later, Bitcoin was positive 67% of the time. However, the 3 negative instances were all in 2018 and marked the end of that bear market.”

Based on his analysis, Peterson estimates the average post-decline gain at around 15%. Bitcoin recovered toward the $94,000 level following Monday’s Wall Street open, reaching its highest prices since mid-November.

Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-buying-metric-with-average-109-gains-flips-green-at-88k

https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/2008344905069064363

https://x.com/caprioleio/status/2008384724541354122