Bitcoin Inflows Could Reach $400 Billion by 2026
Bitcoin demand from a wide range of investors—including publicly listed companies building Bitcoin treasuries, sovereign wealth funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and nation-states—is projected to drive substantial capital inflows into the asset over the next two years.
According to Bitwise, a crypto index fund management firm, inflows into Bitcoin could reach $120 billion by the end of 2025, with an additional $300 billion expected in 2026.
Bitwise’s recent report, “Forecasting Institutional Flows to Bitcoin in 2025/2026,” notes that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $36.2 billion in net inflows in 2024, outpacing the early growth of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which transformed gold investing.
Bitcoin ETFs reached $125 billion in assets under management within 12 months—20 times faster than GLD—suggesting Bitcoin could significantly outperform gold, with inflows potentially tripling to $100 billion annually by 2027.
Despite this momentum, $35 billion in Bitcoin demand remained sidelined in 2024 due to risk-averse compliance policies at major firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, which together manage $60 trillion in client assets.
These institutions require multi-year track records, but the growing legitimacy of BTC ETFs is expected to unlock this capital.
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, stated that Bitcoin’s price above $100,000 signals its potential to replace gold as a store of value.
His analysis also noted that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has recently converged with gold’s, suggesting both assets are becoming more comparable in risk-adjusted returns.
Bitcoin’s appeal as a reserve asset is rising among public and private companies, wealth management platforms, and sovereign nations.
Companies holding Bitcoin now account for approximately 1,146,128 BTC, valued at $125 billion, or 5.8% of the total supply.
Sovereign nations collectively hold 529,705 BTC (worth $57.8 billion), led by the United States (207,189 BTC), China (194,000 BTC), and the United Kingdom (61,000 BTC).
Bitwise analysts, including Juan Leon, Guillaume Girard, and Will Owens, outlined bear, base, and bull case scenarios for Bitcoin wealth allocation.
In the bear case, a 1% reallocation of gold reserves by nation-states would generate $32.3 billion in inflows (323,000 BTC, or 1.54% of supply).
U.S. states creating 10% BTC reserves would add $6.5 billion, wealth platforms allocating 0.1% would contribute $60 billion, and public companies would add another $58.9 billion, totaling over $150 billion in inflows.
The base case scenario envisions a 5% reallocation of gold reserves by nation-states, resulting in $161.7 billion (1,617,000 BTC, or 7.7% of supply).
U.S. states would increase adoption to 30% ($19.6 billion), wealth platforms would allocate 0.5% ($300 billion), and public companies would double their holdings to $117.8 billion, aligning with Bitwise’s projections of $120 billion in inflows by 2025 and $300 billion by 2026—capturing 20.32% of Bitcoin’s supply.
The bull case projects a 10% reallocation of gold reserves by nation-states, generating $323.4 billion (3,234,000 BTC, or 15.38% of supply).
U.S. state adoption would climb to 70% ($45.8 billion), wealth platforms would allocate 1% ($600 billion), and public company holdings would quadruple to $235.6 billion.
Combined, these inflows could exceed $426.9 billion, absorbing 4,269,000 BTC.
The accelerating interest from institutional investors and governments underscores growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
With 94.6% of Bitcoin’s total supply already mined (19,868,987 BTC as of May 2025), it is increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency debasement.
Sources:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-inflows-projected-to-reach-420b-in-2026-bitwise
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