Bitcoin could experience substantial price growth in 2026, potentially diverging from its usual four-year market cycle, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. While some analysts expect Bitcoin to follow historical patterns and peak within months, Hougan suggests the traditional cycle may no longer apply.

“I bet 2026 is an up year,” Hougan said in a recent X video, adding, “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years.” He argues the halving cycle is becoming less relevant over time, noting that each halving event has a diminishing impact and that the macroeconomic environment—particularly interest rate pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on Fed Chair Jerome Powell—could favor crypto over traditional assets.

Hougan also believes regulatory clarity and growing institutional involvement are reducing risks. “Blow-up risk is attenuated, due to improving regulation and the institutionalization of the space,” he said.

He added that Bitcoin still has room to grow due to these long-term trends, which he believes outweigh cyclical factors: “The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic 'four-year cycle' forces, to the extent those exist, and that 2026 will be a good year.”

However, Hougan flagged the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies as a key risk, calling it “significant” and worth monitoring. VanEck recently echoed this concern, warning that firms buying Bitcoin using stock issuance or debt could be vulnerable if prices drop sharply.

While he doesn’t expect explosive short-term gains, Hougan anticipates a gradual upward trend. “I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle,” he said, noting that volatility is still likely.

This perspective aligns with CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who also recently declared that the four-year cycle no longer holds. “My predictions were based on it — buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds,” Ju said. He added that this time, “old whales sell to new long-term whales” and that institutional demand is stronger than expected.

Still, not all analysts agree. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital cautioned that Bitcoin may still peak in October if it mirrors the 2020 cycle, which would be 550 days after the April 2024 halving.

Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio

https://app.nansen.ai/token-god-mode?tokenAddress=1111111111111111111114oLvT2&chain=bitcoin&tab=transactions

https://x.com/Matt_Hougan/status/1948709817125593227

https://x.com/kyle_chasse/status/1948700207840944193