Institutional appetite for Bitcoin is beginning to exceed the rate at which new coins are being created, marking a potentially important inflection point for the cryptocurrency market. Recent figures indicate that institutional buying is now running about 13% above the amount of BTC mined each day on a rolling basis.

Data from quantitative crypto fund Capriole Investments shows that this institution-driven supply absorption has reappeared for the first time since early November. Over the past three days, institutional purchases alone have been sufficient to reduce the net supply of Bitcoin entering the market, even though the scale of buying remains well below levels seen at the peak of the bull market roughly two months ago.

This renewed demand is emerging as Bitcoin trades more than 30% below its October all-time high, a period that has tested sentiment across the market. Capriole founder Charles Edwards previously noted that the decline from the $126,000 peak to recent lows near $80,500 placed significant strain on market participants, including companies that have adopted Bitcoin treasury strategies.

Corporate treasuries under pressure

Attention has been drawn in particular to Strategy, the firm with the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, which has continued to add BTC despite falling prices and weaker equity performance. According to Capriole’s AI-driven analysis, this behavior reflects a “broken corporate ‘flywheel,’ evidenced by record discounts to NAV among treasury companies and rising leverage.”

While Bitcoin may appear attractive based on network fundamentals, Capriole suggested that pressure from leveraged corporate treasuries could complicate the near-term recovery path for price, even as longer-term demand remains intact.

ETF outflows contrast with long-term accumulation

At the same time, capital has been flowing out of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Data compiled by Farside Investors shows net ETF outflows of roughly $635 million over just two days this week.

Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant described the current environment as a “market in transition, where short-term pessimism contrasts with strategic accumulation.” Despite the ETF withdrawals, CryptoQuant pointed out that underlying network metrics continue to support longer-term positioning.

“This divergence between institutional outflows and the conviction of major players underscores that Bitcoin oscillates between immediate stress and long-term expectations of appreciation,” contributor GugaOnChain concluded.

Sources:

https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/69424830cf8c0063d28f559c-Institutions-flee-ETFs-but-miners-hold-the-line-with-a-long-term-view

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-institutional-buys-flip-new-supply-for-first-time-in-6-weeks

https://capriole.com/charts/?chart=btc-treasuries-institutional-buying-daily-btc

https://x.com/caprioleio/status/2000797883835277389/photo/1

https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1996936718004760589

https://farside.co.uk/btc/