Centralized cryptocurrency exchanges saw a notable increase in hourly Bitcoin inflows on Monday as the broader market moved higher, raising concerns among analysts about potential selling pressure.

According to CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, inflows reached 6,100 BTC on March 16, marking the highest hourly level recorded since Feb. 20. He also pointed out that large transactions accounted for 63% of total inflows, the highest proportion observed since mid-October 2025.

The spike coincided with Bitcoin’s recent upward movement, with the asset gaining roughly 12% since the start of the month and reaching a six-week high near $76,000 on March 17.

Market participants typically transfer Bitcoin to exchanges when preparing to sell or convert holdings into stablecoins. “Historically, spikes in large deposits to exchanges have been associated with increased selling pressure,” the analyst noted.

Federal Reserve outlook adds uncertainty

The rise in exchange inflows comes shortly before the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting and interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday, which could influence market sentiment across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Despite the anticipation, market expectations suggest that interest rates will remain unchanged this month. Data from CME futures indicates a 98.9% probability of rates staying the same, with only a 1.1% chance of an increase.

At the same time, broader macroeconomic concerns remain in focus. According to reporting from the Associated Press, the Federal Reserve could signal that no rate cuts are expected this year, driven by inflation risks and geopolitical tensions linked to the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

Key resistance levels come into focus

Moreno also highlighted that if Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, it may encounter resistance around the $75,000 level. “These levels represent the lower band of the traders’ onchain Realized Price, which historically acts as price resistance in bear markets,” he said.

Recent price action appears to support this view. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin approached the $75,000 level three separate times on Coinbase but failed to break above it on each attempt, according to TradingView data.

The broader realized price, which reflects the average break-even level for active traders, is currently estimated at around $84,700. This level previously acted as resistance during October and January.

Sources:

https://cryptoquant.com/insights/research/69b96d020a88cf4911702e71-17-March-2026-Bullish-Futures-Positioning-Bitcoin-Tests-Resistance-as-Exchange-I

https://apnews.com/article/fed-interest-rates-inflation-jobs-powell-trump-5ff8aec596588afed4a7449322bf956c

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-inflows-exchanges-spike-resistance-75k

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=COINBASE