Bitcoin Drops Below $79,000 on Weak US Bond Markets
BITmarkets Team
May 18, 2026
Data from TradingView showed Bitcoin posting daily losses of around 3%, with downside momentum accelerating after US markets opened. BTC/USD moved closer to its weakest levels seen this month.
At the same time, stock markets also pulled back after reaching fresh all-time highs earlier in the week.
Market commentary platform The Kobeissi Letter argued that recent optimism around risk assets was fading as investors reacted to increasingly elevated US bond yields.
“The bond market crisis is intensifying. The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025,” the platform said in a post on X. “After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today. As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable.”
The Kobeissi Letter noted that US 10-year Treasury yields have now moved above levels recorded in April 2025, when US President Donald Trump paused tariffs on China amid concerns over a weakening bond market.
“Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out,” the post added. “We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs. Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.”
Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that a 0.25% interest-rate increase had become the most likely outcome by March 2027.
Traders monitor lower support levels for Bitcoin
Recent market weakness has increased uncertainty around Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim or move beyond local highs near $82,000. A retest of lower support levels had already become part of traders’ expectations, with some targets extending toward the mid-$70,000 region.
“Honestly, not a good sign that $BTC fully retraced the move from yesterday,” trader Pat wrote on X. Meanwhile, range-bound price action remains a scenario watched by several market participants. Analyst Eric Coleman suggested short-term movements have largely followed expected patterns:
“BTC pumped from the marked horizontal support just as expected and again it got rejected below the trendline and the horizontal resistance,” he said. “Further movement in between the horizontal support and resistance is expected until a solid breakout or breakdown occurs.”
For now, traders continue monitoring whether Bitcoin can stabilize around current levels or whether broader macroeconomic pressures push prices toward new local lows.
Sources:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://x.com/Profericcoleman/status/2055270476683919547
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2055273240566825344