Bitcoin May Soar to New Record High in July

Remaining to be a robust asset for wealth preservation, Bitcoin has not fallen sharply following its ascendance to all-time high peaks in early and mid-2024, which may suggest that a price breakout is on the horizon.

Daily time frame analysis

BTCUSD - 1 Day Time Frame

On June 11th, a significant amount of selling coupled with liquidations brought the price down to $66,000, a key support level. Subsequently, the price bounced to $69,000, the previous all-time high, which acted as strong resistance and pushed the price down to $64,000.

If the price holds at this level, it could create a Higher-Low (HL) on the higher timeframes, indicating further bullish compression. However, if the $64,000 level is lost, it might trigger another wave of liquidations, potentially sending the price lower to $60,000.

The $60,000 level has previously acted as a robust support cushion. The drop to $54,000 was merely a False Breakout, perfectly illustrating the Wyckoff Accumulation Theory, which demonstrates Bitcoin's resilience in refusing to go lower.

This false breakout was followed by a strong reaction to $64,000, which had previously acted as resistance, and then a revisit to $60,000, marking it as notable support.

Bitcoin has been ranging around the previous all-time highs for three and a half months, indicating that this accumulation phase is significant.

It's worthy to mention that the growing accumulation of Bitcoin is not limited to the crypto space. Currently, total assets under management in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are nearly $15 billion, indicating that large investors have not accumulated this substantial amount of Bitcoin just to sell it immediately.

The longer this accumulation lasts, the more substantial the subsequent move is likely to be. Additionally, this may be another bear trap or a HL, which would somewhat follow the price action seen in January/February.

4-hour time frame analysis

BTCUSD - 4 Hour Time Frame

The price has marked $70,000 as resistance twice after losing this level, which is identified as a Value by the Fixed Range Volume Profile indicator. Since the strong reaction from $66,000 to $70,000, Bitcoin has been down-trending.

The 12/21MA bands remain red, and the price respects them as resistance. However, the selling is accompanied by decreasing volatility, suggesting that the selling pressure is slowing down or stopping. This price action may indicate the formation of a bottom.

There are three major scenarios to consider:

1- The green scenario shows another upthrust followed by setting a new low, potentially establishing support and eventually moving higher.

2- The blue scenario shows a sweep of the important $64,000 support, now also a liquidity level, wiping out traders who placed their Stop Loss below the wick.

3- The red scenario shows Bitcoin dropping to $60,000, which would mean a prolonged consolidation if the $60,000 level holds.

It is important to note that these are potential directions, not exact paths.

In conclusion, it is now very likely that the bottom is at $64,000, with a sweep of the local lows being highly probable. This would eliminate early buyers and eventually push the price higher to $69,000 as resistance and then to $70,000, from where further developments can be assessed.