October ended badly for bitcoin – the world’s largest cryptocurrency closed the month in the red. But now comes a period that has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest. On average, November brings gains of more than 42%, which could push its price as high as $160,000 if history repeats itself.

It sounds optimistic, but experts warn that history alone isn’t enough. What happens in the global economy matters, too – and right now, there’s plenty going on. “Seasonal trends in Bitcoin work, but they have to be viewed in context with what’s happening in the economy,” said Markus Thielen from 10x Research.

The US and China seek stability

Last week, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on several steps to improve trade relations. Trump called the talks “amazing” and said a deal with China was coming “very soon.”

The agreement included reducing US tariffs in exchange for China limiting fentanyl trade, resuming soybean purchases, and lifting export restrictions on rare earth metals for a year.

Trade tensions between the two countries had contributed to a sharp crypto market drop in October – $19 billion was liquidated in a single day.

However, Dennis Wilder of Georgetown University said it was more of a pause than a real resolution: “This trade war is far from over,” he told CBC News.

Fed cuts rates, markets cheer

The US Federal Reserve recently cut its key interest rate by a quarter point – the lowest level in three years. Another decision is expected on December 10, and according to CME FedWatch, there’s a 63% chance of another rate cut.

Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell said another cut “isn’t certain,” investors are hopeful. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper and encourage risk-taking – including investments in cryptocurrencies.

Government crisis breaks records

While the Fed calms markets, Washington’s political scene keeps heating up. The government shutdown has now lasted five weeks – the longest in US history.

President Trump urged Republicans on Truth Social to eliminate the filibuster rule that allows the minority to block legislation: “THE CHOICE IS CLEAR – GO NUCLEAR, END THE FILIBUSTER, AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” he wrote.

The crisis directly affects cryptocurrencies – the SEC cannot finalize several bitcoin ETF approvals or advance the CLARITY Act, meant to bring more legal certainty to the crypto market.

What this means for Bitcoin

November is historically a strong month for Bitcoin – and this year may be no exception. Lower rates, better US-China relations, and the end of monetary tightening could fuel renewed growth.

However, if the US political crisis drags on or trade tensions flare up again, Bitcoin’s momentum could stall. For now, Bitcoin seems poised to shine once more – but with the risks that come with it.

Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-closed-october-red-now-entering-november

https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1983722591706870063

https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1983745894693601644

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115466449868630054