Bitcoin could reach $140,000 by the end of October – at least according to extensive simulations based on historical data from the past decade. Economist Timothy Peterson stated on X that the models give bitcoin a 50% probability of closing the month above $140,000, while there’s also a 43% chance the price could drop below $136,000.

At the start of October, bitcoin traded at around $116,500. To hit $140,000, it would need to rise about 20%, which aligns with its historical average for this period. According to CoinGlass, October has been the second most profitable month for bitcoin since 2013, with an average return of roughly 20.75%.

Half of October’s gains may have already occurred

Peterson notes that “half of October’s gains may have already occurred,” according to his simulations. The models use daily bitcoin price data since 2015, tracking its typical volatility and rhythm. “Each projection follows the same logic – no human emotion, no subjective opinion. It’s purely mathematics and historical data,” Peterson explained to Cointelegraph.

The result is a probabilistic model designed to filter out the “noise and distortion” that often affect short-term market sentiment. “It’s a clear picture of where bitcoin’s price is most likely heading,” the economist added.

Market still betting on growth

Even though these forecasts are based on historical data, bitcoin has often charted its own path. Still, the current optimism across the market remains strong. After Monday’s new all-time high, many analysts expect the rally to continue.

Sources:

https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1975606703144989042

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

https://www.coinglass.com/today

https://x.com/MatthewHyland_/status/1975335569174806570

https://x.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1975576956776423916

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-50-percent-odds-140k-october-economist-simulations