Bitcoin has faced turbulent weeks, and analysts say it now stands at a crossroads. Without a new catalyst to attract investors, the world’s largest cryptocurrency could face a deeper price correction, according to a recent on-chain analysis by Glassnode.

Price stagnates below the key $117,000 level

According to CoinMarketCap data, bitcoin is currently trading around $111,000 — roughly 5% below the $117,000 level Glassnode identifies as crucial for further market development.
“Without a new growth impulse to push the price back above $117,100, there’s a risk of returning to lower trading ranges,” Glassnode said in its Wednesday report. Historical data show that prolonged trading below this zone often precedes larger declines.

Glassnode also notes that long-term holders have begun taking profits, suggesting waning demand and a lower appetite to support further growth.

October could be volatile

Hyblock Capital CEO Shubh Varma expects October to be relatively volatile. He sees bitcoin moving between $116,000 and $120,000. Following the recent drop to $102,000, he views consolidation — sideways price movement — as the most likely scenario. “ETF inflows remain strong, and spot trading volumes look healthy,” Varma added.

ETFs and the Fed as potential growth drivers

Before the latest decline, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded nine consecutive days of capital inflows totaling $5.96 billion, according to Farside data. Institutional capital flowing through ETFs is often a strong signal of market confidence.

Another potential driver could be upcoming interest rate cuts in the U.S. Lower rates typically increase investor appetite for riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies, as they seek higher returns than those offered by bonds or other safe instruments. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of another Fed rate cut on October 29 currently stands at 95.7%.

Year-end outlook remains positive

Despite current uncertainty, some analysts remain optimistic. Matt Mena of 21Shares believes that the combination of recent liquidations, expected monetary easing, and structurally growing demand creates a more favorable environment for digital assets heading into year-end.

If these factors align, bitcoin could reach $150,000. Bolder forecasts from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained analyst Joe Burnett suggest it could even hit $250,000 by the end of 2025.

Sources:

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-41-2025/?utm_campaign=WoC_41_25&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ether-price-crypto-prediction-tom-lee-arthur-hayes

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-uncertain-crypto-analysts-divided