Toncoin Soars 50% - What's Next?

When is the right time to enter a position in anticipation of a trend reversal? Every trader and investor has likely asked this question at some point. While following a structured trading system is essential for any position, it becomes even more critical when considering a reversal trade.

At BITmarkets, we have been closely monitoring the ongoing correction phase, searching for a potential entry opportunity that aligns with our key criteria. After thorough analysis, we have identified a setup that could provide a high-probability trade confirmation for Toncoin.

Daily time frame analysis

TONUSD - 1 Day Time Frame

When setting criteria for confirming buying positions in a corrective bearish trend, the first step is to look for liquidity withdrawals. If the price has not accumulated enough liquidity—meaning there haven't been enough transactions to facilitate a market reversal—a valid trading setup cannot be realized.

Identifying this liquidity movement is crucial, as it provides the necessary foundation for a potential trend shift and entry opportunity. In the case of Toncoin, this criterion has been met. Throughout February, the price remained above a key internal low, which initially formed following the release of major fundamental news.

Eventually, the price dipped below this low, triggering a high volume of transactions—a strong indication that commercial market participants were actively engaged at this level.

Toncoin price target

For retail traders and investors, additional confirmation is crucial before entering a position. That confirmation arrived when Toncoin surged over 50% from the internal low, successfully closing above two key resistance zones. This move signals a clear rejection of bearish parameters, shifting the market structure toward a bullish outlook.

At this stage, a buy position can be considered, with a target set at last year’s high. However, proper risk management is essential. To secure profits along the way, traders can gradually sell portions of the position at two key Buy-Side Liquidity levels, ensuring capital protection while maximizing gains.

Equally important is mitigating downside risk. A Stop Loss order could be placed below the identified internal low, as marked on the attached chart. This setup aims to deliver a more balanced risk-to-reward ratio, allowing traders to navigate the market efficiently while positioning for potential further upside.

However, if the price on the daily timeframe closes below the lower support zone (marked in orange on the chart), selling part of the position may be advisable to minimize losses.