Since 2017, historical data has shown a recurring trend: when Ethereum records gains in the second and third quarters, the fourth quarter often closes with an additional increase of at least 20%.

Current technical conditions indicate that Ethereum’s price could once again be aligning with this pattern, potentially creating an attractive setup for both short-term traders and long-term participants. The question, however, is what supports this view and what risks must be considered?

Ethereum technical analysis

ETHUSD - 1 Day Time Frame

The first supporting factor for a potential bullish outlook in the fourth quarter is the initial sweep of Sell-Side Liquidity that built up between mid-August and mid-September. This liquidity was cleared by bearish price action. Still, entering based only on this element would be highly risky, so further confirmation is required.

One important confirmation is the resistance zone that was broken impulsively on the 4-hour timeframe. A retest of this zone confirmed its significance, as candlestick bodies did not close below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.

Ethereum price target

The area highlighted in orange on the chart reflects classic bullish behavior: closing above bearish parameters while maintaining bullish structure. In this context, the setup for a valid bullish entry becomes clearer.

A protective Stop Loss could be positioned below the internal low shown on the chart. However, if the price closes below the orange zone—now acting as support—it may be prudent to reduce exposure early, since ideally, this zone could hold.

On the upside, potential profit-taking levels lie at the Buy-Side Liquidity zones, with an additional target at the psychological milestone of $5,500.