Long-term data from CryptoRank indicates that Bitcoin has historically delivered its strongest performance in the second and fourth quarters. Statistically, this pointed to a bullish outlook heading into the current fourth quarter. However, the market structure has not aligned with these expectations — at least not yet. This raises two important questions: what is causing the disconnect, and what could act as the first meaningful signal of a bullish shift?

Aptos technical analysis

APTUSD - 1 Day Time Frame

A clear example for this analysis is Aptos. As noted previously, the broader cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp, impulsive decline at the beginning of October. What followed differed significantly among individual assets. In the case of Aptos, the market continued with a corrective downward movement, forming a series of bearish structures accompanied by several technical elements that warrant closer examination.

The current situation reflects a combination of bearish market structure, key liquidity levels, and the most recent resistance zone, highlighted in orange on the attached chart. For traders already positioned in short setups, or those monitoring opportunities to participate in the prevailing trend, observing this resistance zone is essential.

Aptos price target

As long as the daily price remains below it — and crucially does not achieve a full candle-body close above the upper boundary — maintaining full exposure to short positions could remain justified under the existing structure.

On the other hand, if Aptos achieves a decisive daily close above this resistance zone, the market structure could begin to suggest a potential shift in momentum. Under such circumstances, buy setups toward Buy-Side Liquidity levels marked on the chart could become technically valid.

Since the structure remains bearish for now, the price has recently moved below the previous swing low, triggering Sell-Side Liquidity. This satisfies the first of two conditions commonly needed for a bullish reversal setup. The second condition — a daily close above resistance — would be required to confirm a change in price delivery and signal a possible transition back toward bullish sentiment.