The beginning of 2026 appears unusually quiet for the crypto market. Yet calm periods have historically preceded significant moves. Over the next twelve months, crypto assets are expected to continue spreading into the mainstream, while also facing familiar cyclical risks.

One of the dominant predictions for 2026 is the return of the so-called crypto winter. This term describes an extended downturn marked by falling prices, shrinking trading volumes, and weakened investor sentiment. Emotions play a critical role in crypto valuation, which makes sentiment-driven downturns particularly impactful.

Historically, major market corrections have occurred roughly every four years. In 2018 and 2022, the market experienced peak-to-trough declines of approximately 80% and 70%. As of December 31, Bitcoin is trading more than 30% below its 52-week high.

That said, not all analysts expect history to repeat itself in full. Asset manager Grayscale argues that the traditional four-year cycle is losing relevance as institutional investors now make up a significantly larger share of the market, stabilizing price movements.

2026 may become the year of crypto ETFs

Another major theme for 2026 is the continued expansion of crypto ETFs. Less than two years after the U.S. SEC approved the first spot Bitcoin ETF, 39 digital-asset-tracking funds have already launched in the United States.

In 2025, spot ETFs for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP entered the market. In 2026, approvals may follow for Avalanche, Cardano, and Polkadot. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, as of mid-December, 125 cryptocurrency ETFs were awaiting regulatory approval.

Spot crypto ETFs play a dual role. They significantly lower the barrier to entry for investors who prefer traditional financial instruments over crypto exchanges. At the same time, ETF approvals tend to trigger short-term capital inflows, which may allow major altcoins to outperform Bitcoin in certain phases of 2026.

Ripple faces a tougher reality

The final prediction for 2026 concerns Ripple. A growing number of analysts believe that the price of XRP could retreat toward the one-dollar level.

The past 14 months created an unusually favorable environment for Ripple. Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory brought a more crypto-friendly administration, the long-running legal dispute with U.S. regulators was resolved, and the approval of spot XRP ETFs fueled investor demand.

However, 2026 lacks similarly strong catalysts. Without clear drivers, XRP may struggle to maintain momentum. At present, Ripple is trading near the USD 1.80 level, but the coming year could test investor patience.

Sources:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-cryptocurrency-predictions-2026

https://qz.com/2026-crypto-predictions-bitcoin-stablecoins-clarity-etfs

https://research.grayscale.com/reports/2026-digital-asset-outlook-dawn-of-the-institutional-era

https://x.com/JSeyff/status/2001334758706725005

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-23/peak-etf-mania-flows-launches-and-volume-shatter-all-records?srnd=phx-etfs