The first weeks of 2026 have already prompted a reassessment of the optimistic projections that closed out 2025. Instead of extending its late-year momentum, Bitcoin has remained confined within the $65,000 to $80,000 range. On a year-on-year basis, the asset is lower by 30%, and similar patterns are visible across other leading cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, XRP and Solana.

The market has not collapsed, but neither has it accelerated. This dynamic raises a central question for the year ahead: are we witnessing temporary consolidation or the early stages of a new crypto winter?

Regulatory progress vs. global uncertainty

Two opposing forces are currently shaping price behavior. On one side, regulatory clarity continues to improve across major economies. Structured frameworks for digital assets are gradually reducing ambiguity and providing institutional participants with clearer rules of engagement.

On the other side, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Ongoing conflicts, renewed trade tensions, and tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump toward both allies and trade partners have reinforced a cautious investment environment. Regardless of whether the stated motivations involve trade imbalances or territorial issues, persistent unpredictability weighs heavily on capital markets.

Revisiting the crypto winter narrative

While regulation supports structural development, uncertainty suppresses risk appetite. The recent stagnation of Bitcoin has revived discussion around the concept of a crypto winter: a period typically marked by extended sideways movement or sustained losses rather than dramatic volatility alone.

The last prolonged downturn between late 2021 and 2023 saw Bitcoin decline approximately 70% from its peak amid structural failures across the industry, including the FTX collapse. That phase was defined by systemic fragility and shaken confidence.

The present environment differs in important ways. Market infrastructure is stronger, institutional participation is deeper, and regulatory oversight is more established. Yet price momentum has slowed considerably, and conviction appears measured.

Expectations entering 2026

Throughout January, BITmarkets gathered perspectives from analysts at major investment banks and established cryptocurrency firms. A commonly referenced view positioned the $80,000–$90,000 range as a strategic accumulation zone.

Some projections highlighted regulatory improvements as a key driver of continued institutional adoption. Others suggested that Bitcoin could approach $100,000 by the end of the first quarter, potentially extending toward $128,000 if macroeconomic conditions proved supportive.

As February unfolds, however, those upside scenarios have yet to gain traction.

The expanding digital finance ecosystem

Despite restrained price performance, structural developments within digital finance continue. Traditional financial institutions are increasingly integrating blockchain-based infrastructure into their operations. JPMorgan has issued its USD deposit token, JPM Coin, on a public blockchain. Citi has implemented tokenized services enabling real-time cross-border payments and liquidity management.

Across asset managers, payment providers, fintech companies and institutional investors, distributed ledger technology is steadily becoming embedded in core financial processes. This evolution of digital finance may ultimately carry greater long-term significance for crypto asset valuations than short-term price movements alone.

The Bitcoin question

A recurring observation — particularly for Bitcoin and Ethereum — is that growing adoption does not necessarily translate into immediate price appreciation. The market could remain range-bound, experience further downside, or re-accelerate if macroeconomic stability improves and institutional integration continues to expand. All outcomes remain plausible.

For now, Bitcoin sits at an inflection point. Whether the early-year cooling represents the onset of a prolonged winter or merely a pause within a broader cycle will depend on how macro conditions and structural adoption evolve throughout 2026.

Author: Ali Daylami, Head of Data Analytics at BITmarkets