Bitcoin entered 2026 with a small yet symbolic change. After a series of record highs in 2025, mining difficulty declined for the first time. During the network’s first adjustment of the year, difficulty fell to 146.4 trillion. While the decrease is modest, it comes at a time when bitcoin miners are emerging from one of the most challenging periods in the industry’s history.

Mining difficulty determines how hard it is to add a new block to the Bitcoin network. The system adjusts this value roughly every two weeks to ensure that new blocks are produced about once every ten minutes. Currently, blocks are being mined in an average of 9.88 minutes, slightly faster than the target. That suggests the next adjustment will push difficulty higher again.

According to CoinWarz data, the next adjustment is expected on January 22, 2026, at 04:08 UTC. Difficulty is projected to rise from 146.47 trillion to approximately 148.20 trillion to bring block production closer to the ten-minute target.

A record year followed by a step back

For the Bitcoin network, 2025 was exceptional. Mining difficulty repeatedly reached all-time highs, peaking at 155.9 trillion in November. Although the final adjustment of the year increased difficulty slightly, it already remained below that record level.

The current decline does not signal a trend reversal but rather a brief pause in long-term growth. Higher difficulty means stronger competition among bitcoin miners and higher operating costs — a combination that proved particularly painful over the past year.

The toughest period for miners

Bitcoin miners experienced one of the worst profitability environments on record. The year 2025 has been described across the industry as “the toughest margin environment in history.” Several factors contributed to this situation. In April 2024, the halving cut block rewards in half. At the same time, macroeconomic conditions deteriorated and regulatory pressure intensified. Toward the end of the year, a sharp crypto market downturn added further strain.

Another warning sign was the decline in hashprice, a metric showing how much revenue miners earn per unit of computing power. The break-even level typically sits around $40 per petahash per second per day. In November 2025, however, hashprice fell below $35 — the lowest level in several years. For many operators, this meant a difficult choice between shutting down equipment or continuing to mine at a loss.

Market drop and political pressure

Conditions worsened further after a sharp crypto market sell-off following October volatility, which fully materialized in November. The price of bitcoin dropped by more than 30 percent and briefly hovered just above $80,000.

Although bitcoin has since partially recovered, it remains well below its October all-time high above $125,000. Additional pressure came from the United States, where tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump raised concerns about supply-chain disruptions, particularly for mining hardware. For miners, this translated into higher costs and increased uncertainty around future investments.

What it means

The slight reduction in difficulty at the start of 2026 is best seen as a technical correction rather than a meaningful shift in trend. The Bitcoin network remains highly competitive, and conditions for bitcoin miners are still tight. Another modest difficulty increase is already expected by the end of January.

Over the long term, developments will largely depend on the price of bitcoin and how quickly miners can adapt to increasingly demanding conditions. For everyday users, it is a reminder that every bitcoin transaction relies on a complex technological and economic ecosystem — and that even a seemingly minor figure like “146.4 trillion” can reveal a great deal about the health of the entire sector.

Sources:

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/difficulty-chart

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-difficulty-falls-first-adjustment-2026