Asset manager VanEck expects Bitcoin to reach as high as $2.9 million by 2050 if it evolves into a settlement layer for both international and domestic trade and becomes part of central bank reserve strategies. The projection is based on a 15% compound annual growth rate and assumes that Bitcoin eventually handles between 5% and 10% of global cross-border trade, alongside roughly 5% of domestic transactions, according to VanEck’s head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush.

In their analysis, expanding global liquidity and ongoing monetary debasement are described as the main forces supporting long-term price appreciation. As the authors note, “Bitcoin is not a tactical trade in this framework; it functions as a long-duration hedge against adverse monetary regime outcomes.”

They add that “While short-term price action remains a function of global liquidity cycles and leverage, the long-term value accrual will be driven by Bitcoin’s convergence with the structural deficiencies of the sovereign debt system.”

Under this scenario, central banks could allocate around 2.5% of their assets to Bitcoin. A price of $2.9 million would imply that Bitcoin represents approximately 1.66% of total global financial assets.

Scenarios and adoption assumptions

The $2.9 million estimate represents VanEck’s base case. A more conservative outlook assumes a 2% CAGR, resulting in a price near $130,000 by 2050, while a more optimistic scenario models a 20% CAGR, pointing to a valuation of roughly $52.4 million.

Bitcoin already plays a limited role in global trade, particularly in sanctioned economies such as Venezuela, Iran and Russia. However, adoption across G7 economies remains minimal, suggesting that broader integration into mainstream trade and reserves would require a significant structural shift.

How Bitcoin compares with major currencies

Data from SWIFT shows that, as of September 2025, the US dollar accounted for nearly half of international trade settlement, followed by the euro and British pound. The Japanese yen and Chinese yuan completed the top five.

If Bitcoin were to capture a 5% to 10% share of international trade under VanEck’s model, it would place it on par with the British pound’s current role in global settlement. Notably, the assumed 15% CAGR represents a moderation from VanEck’s earlier projections.

In December 2024, the firm applied a 25% CAGR in a scenario suggesting that a US strategic Bitcoin reserve of one million coins could materially reduce national debt levels by mid-century.

Sources:

https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vaneck-bitcoin-long-term-capital-market-assumptions/

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-hit-2-9m-2050-global-trade-vaneck

https://www.swift.com/swift-resource/252499/download