Bitcoin Poised to Double in Next Bull Run
Bitcoin could experience a “strong bull rally” if a well-known BTC price indicator replicates a previous breakout pattern.
On Nov. 18, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlighted in a Quicktake blog post that Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple is approaching a rare golden cross.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin bulls could see an average price increase of 90% if the Puell Multiple achieves this rare breakout.
Analyzing the past five years, the data reveals that the metric has crossed its 365-day moving average only three times, each of which led to “significant price surges” for BTC/USD.
“Puell Multiple helps us understand market cycles from a mining perspective,” explained CryptoQuant contributor Burakkesmeci, and continued: “It is a crucial indicator for evaluating mining profitability.”
The Puell Multiple compares the daily value of bitcoins mined to their 365-day moving average, offering insights into miner stability.
When the value crosses the moving average trend line, it generally aligns with rapid increases in Bitcoin’s price.
Historical instances of this pattern include an 83% rally following a Puell golden cross in March 2019, a 113% surge in January 2020, and a 76% gain in January 2024.
“This data shows that after Puell Multiple settles above its SMA365, an average increase of around 90% in Bitcoin's price has historically followed,” the post noted.
CryptoQuant concluded that supportive macroeconomic factors could further improve the odds of a strong rally, describing the situation as “inevitable.”
“All these data points and the macroeconomic framework suggest that a strong bull rally might be on the horizon,” it emphasized.
Analysts are now forecasting even greater upward momentum for Bitcoin, despite BTC/USD already rising over 40% in Q4.
The market’s “parabolic phase” is believed to have started, potentially lasting about 300 days before reaching a new macro top.
Expectations of Bitcoin hitting six figures for the first time are growing, though some worry that retail “FOMO” could trigger a significant price correction.
“Lots of people about to become intimately familiar with the phrase, Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), on this Bitcoin cycle,” noted Preston Pysh, co-founder of The Investor’s Podcast, on X this week.
Earlier in November, pseudonymous analyst PlanB, known for the Stock-to-Flow BTC price models, anticipated the main wave of FOMO to arrive in early 2025.
PlanB pointed to the relative strength index (RSI), which generally stays above the “overbought” threshold of 70 during Bitcoin bull markets.
On Nov. 18, monthly RSI was at 74.4, as reported by TradingView.
Sources:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-metric-breakout-inevitable-90-btc-price-rally-next
https://x.com/PrestonPysh/status/1858505513438228776
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCEUR/?exchange=BINANCE
